Alpha Trader — Performance Report

AlphaDesk

Alpha Trader Strategy

8-Year Performance Report

Aug 2017 – May 2026

Basis: Fixed 1% risk per trade (1R = 1%) · real maker/taker fees · no same-candle look-ahead (strictest assumption) · 9,039 trades across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP · 8.7 years

Total Return

+1,237%

$10,000 → $133,660 at fixed 1% risk

Avg / Year

+142%

every calendar year positive

Max Drawdown

-21.5%

worst intramonth · Sep 2022

Win Rate

35.0%

avg win 2.37R · avg loss -1.07R

Profit Factor

1.2

gross profit ÷ gross loss

Risk of Ruin

0.04%

10,000-path Monte Carlo

Equity Curve & Drawdown

Annual Returns

Monthly Returns — all years (%)

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2017								+6	-5	+10	+33	+14	+59
2018	+15	+10	+12	+14	+21	-26	+15	+5	+18	+10	-7	+58	+144
2019	+6	+14	+18	+50	+30	+27	+19	+22	+3	-4	+9	-21	+173
2020	+3	+27	+57	+17	+14	+17	+5	+28	+21	+43	+69	+5	+307
2021	-7	+27	+30	+11	+16	-17	+20	+40	+2	-13	-12	+29	+126
2022	+6	+7	+8	-4	+35	+23	+18	-37	+34	+15	+8	-9	+105
2023	+15	+14	-16	+10	+6	+7	+12	-2	-9	+11	+9	+23	+79
2024	-22	+13	+2	+35	+2	-11	+9	+32	+18	-23	+17	-8	+65
2025	+27	+28	+32	+27	+18	+8	+8	-25	-9	+8	+20	+12	+152
2026	+4	+27	+4	-20	+11								+26

Performance by Pair

Pair	Trades	Win Rate	Expectancy	Profit Factor	Total Return
BTC	2,055	36.1%	+0.162R	1.24	+334%
ETH	2,537	35.3%	+0.138R	1.20	+349%
SOL	2,000	33.2%	+0.104R	1.15	+209%
XRP	2,447	35.4%	+0.141R	1.20	+345%

Monte Carlo Simulation 10,000 bootstrap paths

Risk of Ruin

0.04%

Median Max DD

-23%

95th-pct Max DD

-47%

99th-pct Max DD

-63%

Final return distribution — p5 +921% · median +1,236% · p95 +1,551%

Max-drawdown distribution (% of peak equity)

Methodology. Past performance of the Alpha Trader strategy on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP over 8.7 years (9,039 trades). Each trade risks a fixed 1% of a $10,000 account (1R = 1%); returns are summed, not compounded. Costs use real Hyperliquid maker/taker fees calibrated to live fills (≈0.079R per trade) with the exchange's 10× notional cap. Trade exits are resolved on 5-minute candles with no same-candle look-ahead — a take-profit can never fill on the same candle as entry, the strictest (most conservative) assumption; stop-losses are always checked before take-profits. Win rate, profit factor and per-pair figures are net of fees. Monte Carlo bootstraps the realized per-trade sequence over 10,000 paths.

Disclaimer. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Figures are based on the strategy's historical signals at a fixed 1% risk per trade and may not reflect live execution slippage in all market conditions. This document is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.